Plenty of Fish in the Sea

In episode 7 of season 1 in the U.S sitcom, 'How I Met Your Mother' (Matchmaker), Ted Mosby approaches a dating consultant and an amusing exchange ensues after the consultant purports to possess an algorithm that can perfectly match a person with another based on certain variables related to preferences and personality.

Ted: ... I don't need an Algorithm to meet women. It's New York City. You know, plenty of fish in the sea.

Ellen: Plenty of fish in the sea. Yes, there's 9 million people in New York, 4.5 million women, of course you wanna meet someone roughly your own age, let's say, plus minus 5 years. So if we take into account the most recent census data, that leaves us with 482,000. But ah, wait. 48% of those are already in relationships and then you have to take out the ex-girlfriends and the relatives and oh, we can't forget those lesbians and then that leaves us with 8 women.

Ted: That can't be right. Eight? Really, eight?

Ellen: There are 8 fish in that big, blue ocean Ted. And if you feel confident that you can reel one into your boat without me, there's the door.

Ted: Do you take credit cards?

8 women. Preposterous. As I was a firm believer in the 'many fish in the sea' principle, I decided to undertake some research of my own to prove that, at least in my case, there are substantially more than 8 fish in the ocean. In fact, I wanted to prove that there were thousands of fish in the sea, and that there were other schools waiting to be baited in vast oceans.

The Variables

Before pursuing my research, I distinguished a number of key qualities that I look for in a woman:

• Must actually be a woman. No surprises.
• Must be of straight sexual orientation.
• Preferably be around the same age.
• Of Asian background.
• Smart (IQ over 120).
• Aesthetically pleasing (to me).
• Not overweight (this is of the utmost importance).
• Not in a relationship.
• Personalities must be compatible.

Perfectly reasonable expectations.

The Statistics

There are 7,238,800 people in Sydney. The sex ratio of women to men is 99.2:100 (ABS, 2010), which leaves approximately (rounded to the nearest person) 3,633,936 women. Of these women, 7% are in the 15-24 age bracket (the 'plus minus 5 years' benchmark, ABS 2010), 16.9% are Asian, of which 63% are truly Asian (i.e. excluding the Indian population, etc. No offence, ABS 2007), and 4.3% are lesbian (study by Monash University). 25,919 women left.

The IQ scale is based on standard deviations, so only 10% of women will have an IQ greater than 120. 2592.

Having conducted an experiment, where I observed over 30 women on the train and gave them an 'aesthetic rating' between 1 and 10 (1 being appallingly unattractive and 10 being drop dead gorgeous), I assumed my sample was approximately normally distributed (given the high sample number) and employed the empirical rule to ascertain that 15.8% of women I meet or rather, see, I will rate above 7.6 (which is roughly a distinction; good enough). 410.

54% of Australians are overweight (ABS 2006). Terrible. 188.

Let us, for convenience sake, assume that the statistic provided by the sitcom holds true and that 48% of people are already in a relationship and that there is a 50% probability of personality compatibility. That leaves...

The Result

46 women. There are 46 women in Sydney that fits the bill, and I haven't even considered the minute possibility of meeting these women by chance encounter. Do you take credit cards indeed.